I wouldn't recommend calling the flop bet for a couple of reasons.
First of all, you are drawing to a non-nut flush on a board that doesn't look too threatening. You have someone betting the pot and there's a call in front of you - what could they have to make the bet and call? If either one has a set you are in deep trouble as your only saving grace right now is the flush. However, if you are drawing to the flush, you can't know that you've got the nuts unless the ace comes up.
Furthermore, drawing to the flush is light at least one out (because you have 3 in your hand), and possibly another because the would pair the board (and a set seems at least a possibility). Now you are drawing to 7 outs. The pot is laying you about 3:1. You should expect that a non-flush card on the turn could very likely lead to another large bet - in which case your implied odds aren't too good either (you will likely only be able to see one card before the majority of everyone's stack is in the middle).
So in my opinion you should fold on the flop. Also, on the turn, when the original pot-bettor CHECKS instead of bets away and now the other player comes out with a bet - you should get out. UTG+2's play looks textbook to me to be the Axs in hearts, possibly with other draws. MP3's play doesn't necessarily lead me to believe he has a straight - but it is certainly a possibility. A set is much more likely for him. In either case though - you are effectively drawing dead on the turn except to a non-heart 7 or Q. Even if the other player doesn't have the nut flush draw - you are likely only looking at 13 outs and now the pot is laying about 2:1 on your call.
Just a few thoughts
/dStatistics: Posted by starstealer — Wed Mar 02, 2005 8:53 am
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