Obviously having no read on this particular opponent, I'd put the percentages more like at 5% (which may be optimistic, but should be close enough) for winning both pots, maybe 50% on winning the side pot if UTG calls/raises, and a 50% chance that UTG folds his loser. I also figure that UTG is ahead close to 30% of the time here (and on the 70% where he is behind, he folds half).
If the probabilities are like that, I have absolutely no doubt that it's -EV (without figuring it up).Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Thu Oct 12, 2006 9:15 am
]]>