Let's take my QQ with Q-high flush draw hand, posted above. Board is something like QTd6d (can't remember Q suit), and I have QQJ7 with two diamonds, so I also have some straight blockers here.
Ok, the one guy is already all-in, but the question is how the initial bettor was going to proceed. He in fact had something like KT63 with K-high flush draw.
If I flat call, the turn pot is $300, and I think EP is PROBABLY going to check it to me or bet weakly unless he hits either the flush or the boat. I'm going to have trouble laying down the flush, which may be good against him and with boat redraw if it isn't (which it isn't in point of fact). He may get double me up if he fills up, particularly since I looked like a draw on the flop with the flat call.
He's also going to be more inclined to call on a blank turn if he checks and I fire $300. I think he'll have to consider that one but may very well call. My play in that case will give some conflicting signals to him anyway.
However, also on this particular board, any non-pairing card bigger than 6 makes a straight of some kind--which I can also bet to a check and may get called. I think in that case he'd probably figure that his boat would be good plus his flush outs. And the players in this game are inclined to make those kinds of calls (I guess 11 presumed outs, although in fact he only has 5). I also think he'll bet if he makes a straight here, so I should be fairly safe in repping it to a check: While I won't have the straight, I should still be ahead.
I don't know what all this adds up to in terms of calling vs. raising, but I thought it was worth a mention anyway. If he does hit his good flush, his two pair also means that I have only 8 outs on the river rather than 10.
Then there's also the meta-game aspect (which is really my biggest argument for the raise at the moment) of trying to get as much fold equity as possible when I raise in pretty attractive pots. I think one also sees a little bit about the "pain threshold" on this hand: They're not terribly worried about $70, but they think twice when you fire several hundred at them. And, really, $140 ($70 bet into $70 pot) is already a pretty juicy 1/2 pot, even given the usual PF raising.
Anyhow, just more to think about, and I'm not really sure myself how the pros and cons here really work out.Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Tue Feb 20, 2007 9:50 am
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