Here's my shortcut on straight boards with no flush draw:
First I take the number of cards in my hand where hitting will make the nuts, multiply that by 3, and then add 4 if a card not in my hand will make the nuts (sometimes 8).
Examples on board of 982r:
QJT3: 3 cards in my hand make the nuts, so that's 9 outs, plus another 4 for the 7, so 13 altogether.
QJT7: all 4 cards in my hand make the nuts (12), plus the 6 for another 4 for 16 altogether.
Trickier are:
JT76: Here, only the 7 and the 6 make the nuts for 6, plus another 8 for the Q and the 5, so that's 14.
JT97: Here, only the 7 actually makes the nuts (3) plus the 6 and the Q for another 8, so that's just 11 outs. But, as explored elsewhere, this is still a very strong hand on this board--even though with pure counting of outs, it looks a lot weaker than JT76. In actuality JT76 is dominated due to the pair.
Now, here's the idea that I just had for counting outs when there's also a flush draw. I'll take the board now as 9h8h2d.
Here's what you do to get nut outs: First, count your straight outs as if the board were rainbow. Then subtract one for each straight out in your hand that is not a heart (unless it would make a straight flush). Finally, subtract one on the end(s) unless that would make you a straight flush. Hence:
QJT3 all hearts: We got 13 for the straight on this one. And we don't need to subtract anything because the cards in your hand are all hearts, and the 7h would make you a straight flush. So, it's still 13.
QhJsTh3s: 13 for the straight again if the board were rainbow. But there's one non-heart in your hand. However, that would make a straight flush, so you can still count it. You do have to subtract one, though, because 7h isn't a nut out. So, 12 nut outs here.
QhJhTs7s: 16 outs for the straight, less 2 for the spades. But Th makes the straight flush, so you can still count it. 6h, however, doesn't make you the nuts. So, 14 nut outs.
QhJhTh7s: 15 outs. The 7h makes a straight flush, but the 6h doesn't. So, you only need to subtract one.
JhTh7s6s: We had 14 outs ignoring the flushes. 7h makes a straight flush, but 6h doesn't. So, subtract 1. Also 5h is no longer a nut out, but Qh is. So, subtract another one for 12 true nut outs.
JhTh9s7s: We had only 11 outs for the straight on a rainbow board. 7h is still good. 6h isn't, but Qh is. So, we subtract only 1 for 10 actual nut outs. Again, this is a very strong hand, though. I think it shows that just raw counting of outs isn't really enough to figure what shape you're actually in.Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Tue Mar 06, 2007 12:50 pm
]]>