I just sat down at a very aggro table (average pot-size something like $80) and had made a big score very quickly when I raised KQJ9 in LP, got re-raised pot by an obvious AA, then flopped top two pair, which I check-raised for stack, got called, and they held up.
So, I have a little over $400 right away. Then a few hands later (no great reads yet), when it gets back to me after the first orbit, I have T987ds in SB with maybe 5 limpers. I make it $6 to go (I just figured this would fold no one but create a bigger pot on a strong hand).
Flop comes 356r (I have a runner-runner heart draw to my T), and I pot it for something like $25 OOP. MP player with around $300 flat calls, then stack of $100 raises pot. All others fold.
I decide to push here, and that's really my question. What I was really trying to do was get the bigger stack out (although I could have him dominated) and take my chances HU for less money. So, the raise was more risk-reduction than anything else--at least that was my intention. And it also worked because MP folded and the shorty obviously called. (Result: I miss and he takes it down with top set and an A-high heart draw, which was kind of sucky since an additional heart did hit on the turn).
So, I guess safety is the main argument for my play, FWIW.
But I can also see arguments for a flat call or a fold.
Flat call: MP is likely to call or push, which should give me a better return on my investment if I win. But now I'm playing a draw for stack which is indeed fairly dominating but which would only be a 13 outer under the best circumstances. And it's really looking like my opponents have a lot of my outs.
And I guess that's the biggest argument for a fold. If one guy has some kind of 47 (raiser--he didn't actually have any blockers) and the other guy maybe 5678 (which I think he actually had based on comments after the hand), then I'm down to 9 outs. I think I can figure on at most 11, and I have no pair at all.
I really think my preference here is actually a fold--or is that just impossible on a wrap like that?Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Thu Apr 05, 2007 11:15 am
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