Flop comes QdTh3c. Looks pretty good, right? Now SB fires pot at it, and MP calls. Both are full stacked. I'm sufficiently convinced that SB has a set that I decide to flat call. Even if it's TT, I think I have little ability to rep QQ after raising, and I can at least get away from it if the board pairs.
But is this already a questionable call? While I have a full 17 straighting outs, some of which are clearly gone due to the MP call, I only have 11 nut outs, and some of these are probably gone.
Turn is 5c, and SB fires his remaining stack, again MP calls. I'm now left with about $58 or somewhere around there to call for a pot of $220 or so. I figure there's no reason to assume that anyone has clubs, so I call again. Time to go away?
Ok, well, here are the actual hands as well as equity:
SB has QcQsAc6c, and MP has KJ98 with spades to the J.
Equity on the flop:
SB: 57%
me: 23%
MP: 20%
I think I actually need to go away on the flop, since my outs are mostly to a split (I also don't see how I actually win except with runner-runner kings)--and it could be worse if he had a bigger draw.
On the turn, it's absolutely horrible, with SB winning 75% of the time and the remaining 25% being splits, so my equity goes down to 12.5%.
Well, bottom line imo: While the clubs are somewhat unlucky, I think I just didn't hit the flop hard enough here with this particular action. With the caller in the hand, I needed to look more closely at true nut outs--like AKJ9, ok. The advantage of position here was really just the ability to get out...
Or does anyone like the calls?Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:36 pm
]]>