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I was trying to raise a LOT in late position with playable hands, but found ultimately that it was costly as I wasn't able to continue in enough hands to pay for the raises.
The JJ99 hand I would raise in 3rd position or better. I don't think I raise anything from the SB or BB unless it's a re-raise to make it a stack play with AAxx.
Fortunately, in this game ... it doesn't really matter that much if you play well post-flop.
Back to the topic at hand ... you said you were more interested in post-flop than pre-flop play on this hand. I think I still maintain that I would be waiting for a better spot than to risk my stack oop with a drawing hand. Looking at the equity numbers your posting though ... maybe I'm underestimating the hand value overall. I'm getting the idea here that as long as you've got 40-60 buyins in your bankroll ... you may as well push here just cause.
Statistics: Posted by pokerzen — Mon Jul 09, 2007 6:25 am
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Basically, with position I'll raise more hands and certainly a lot more AA hands. OOP I'm raising much stronger hands and only AA hands that have a lot more going for them than AA (pretty much AAds with a connector is enough, but I consider that very strong AA).
I'm more concerned about the post-flop aspects on this hand, though. I suppose one can still call and then bet upon hitting set (despite straights), flush (despite its not being the nuts) or straight (which is of course always the nuts). I think it's also fairly safe to assume that pairing the 7 or 8 reduces my outs to the point that I can't call the turn, but pairing the 2 (while bad against his actual hand) might put me ahead in actuality, because I definitely think top 2 is in his raising range.
I did just run some AA hands with hearts, and in the best case, I'm about a 2:1 underdog. What's interesting is that I think the lower level players (particularly at the 100 level) are less willing to raise with that--well, maybe in a HU pot. But it's MUCH worse for my hand than his set, where I'm really not in bad shape. I may even be a little ahead of 2 pair on the flop unless he has a decent straight draw with it (that kills at least one of my set cards).
Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Sat Jul 07, 2007 10:39 pm
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I'm in the small blind getting dealt JJ99. I don't like putting in a raise simply because I'm first to act when the flop hits.
Since I did raise though, and on the flop I'm being bet at by a tight player who doesn't get out of line, I can assume the play is coming out like this. LP: "Raiser has a high pair or a wrap ... probably aces ... if I call and hit ... maybe I can take his stack."
In this instance I would be putting villain strongly on 2 pair minimum, probably a set, and at least a blocker for the flush draw if not a better one himself. I guess I'm basically saying that post-flop, I'm counting on a hit to make my hand and take down the pot. I'm not entirely sure that even hitting my card will work, as it's possible I could be outdrawn.
I think overall here, I'm probably calling the flop bet (maybe), and then folding. I really don't like this hand in early position, facing action, and relying on a hit (a 15-outer albeit) ... which may or may not take down the hand if it does. I figure I've got 7 clean outs, giving me about a 30% chance for a nut hand. Really, I wanted to set it or forget it on this hand ... rather than face down a relatively weak draw against a made hand and a possibly better draw.
Of course I'm a passive-weak-tight nit, but you know.
I can see the possibility of villain holding a wrap, in which case we may be alright since we're holding blockers to his play. 2-pair still being a possibility of course.
I guess in the overall getting the stack in isn't a huge mistake against villain's range ... but I'd be sweatin' doing it, and probably expect to lose the pot.
Statistics: Posted by pokerzen — Fri Jul 06, 2007 6:21 am
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