Ok, you're now risking $575 for $700 if SB folds and $575 for $1,800 if SB calls. On the bright side, if SB calls, I think they take away a fair number of one another's outs if both have wraps, so you're probably better than 2:1 to win against 2 wraps.
Well, seat just opened up, but I think I may be able to do half of what I was intending:
Let's say SB folds.
Button has KK some percent p and you lose let's say always. The other percentage you win roughly 60% of the time, and you need to be something like 1.2:1 underdog overall to make this play--somewhere around 55-45 underdog.
So, we need p + (1-p)*.4 < .45 iff .4 + .6*p < .45 iff p < 10% roughly.
I think it gets a lot better if SB calls, but I'm not sure you can say he has KK < 10% of the time. I do think the other percentage he's going to have a decent wrap almost always if he plays for stack (you no doubt have SOME fold equity surely on some hands here, so that also helps).Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Fri Aug 03, 2007 8:17 pm
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