I attempted an EV calculation on the AAds hand and came up with its being pretty marginal, although a little plus for me, although the margin of error is such that it's very difficult to say. Paired boards are also tricky, as I think he can conceivably have top 2 or a set here, making a paired 8 also difficult. Anyhow, I was a bit concerned about the laydown, as I do think runner-runner gets a full-stack payoff, but after the raise and a bunch of callers, there's really not a lot of stack-depth here. The turn bet is virtually all-in.
On the low flush I think I do like betting the flop. I also bet the turn, but really should've just let it go, I think. I got insta-called by nut flush. Not sure about fold equity vs. K- and Q-high. I rather think there is some. I agree that sets are somewhat unlikely, but even 2 pair drawing for free (with 5 callers) is rather risky in this game. Also, LOTS of players will see the flop in this game to a raise with pretty dubious little pairs. So, sets really aren't nearly as unlikely as in most online games. They don't seem terribly worried about being oversetted.
I'm kind of thinking that in this game my line for a while should be bet flop, then forget about non-nut flush/take freecard to str8 flush. You're quite right about the turn bet being a bluff.Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Sat Oct 06, 2007 1:44 pm
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