You play hand X for a limp. The flop comes. You have 2/3 equity on the flop. There are 6SBs in the pot. You bet and everyone folds. You win 6SBs
You play hand X for a raise. The flop comes. You have 2/3 equity on the flop. There are 12SBs in the pot. You get another 2 BBs in from your opponents when you win, and an average of 1BB in as a loss. When you win, you gain 12SBs + 2BBs = 16SBs. When you lose, you lose 1BB plus the SB you bet on the flop = 3SBs.
So, in the second scenario, you win 16SBs 2/3 of the time and lose (flop onwards) 3SBs 1/3 of the time. It costs you one extra SB (preflop) to get to the same situation, so subtract one SB.
EV in situation 1 = 6SBs
EV in situation 2 = 8.67SBs
Just a mathematical treatment of a very simple system, but the take home message is: when you have a strong hand that holds a high pot equity (or likely pot equity) then it's money in the bank when you raise and pick up calls. The object of omaha 8 ESPECIALLY is to win money, regardless of the number of players who call or the weighting (money-wise) of the pots in which you do so. It's NOT an exercise in winning pots at any cost, no matter how small. Winning one pot of $80 is much better than winning three pots of $15.
Do not lose sight of the fact that, when you raise, you ARE pricing the draws in later (i.e. giving them implied pot odds) but charging them a severe premium to flop their draws (i.e. short term POSITIVE pot odds) which, in most flop situations, will give you more equity than your opponents.
In the example you describe, you have increased your ability to push out draws at the cost of almost HALVING the size of the pot that you're playing for, against the same number of players. Can you seriously argue that that is a good proposition, with a hand that figures to be the best (by a reasonable distance) even in a multiway pot? When you have a favourite in omaha 8, regardless of number of opponents, size of pot etc., you need to increase the size of the pot. Period. Omaha 8 is the SIMPLEST game in all of poker in that respect; it's a big game of maths, and deciding whether you're positive or negative EV, at it's most elementrary level. Winning pots, or how often you get drawn out on DOES make a difference, psychologically (you'd be a robot if it didn't), but profit-wise, the best move you can make in O8 is ALWAYS the one that puts the most money in when your expected value for each bet is in the positive.
My two cents, anyhow. Let me know how your strategy gets on; I think it's an interesting idea and very well thought out, and I STILL think you're a strong and intellectually talented player, but, I feel, the "put less in, reduce variance AND winrate" idea is and mathematically extremely flawed.
Monk
xxxxxStatistics: Posted by Felonius_Monk — Sat May 07, 2005 5:34 pm
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