Preflop - 6.5 SB
Flop - 8 SB
Turn - 8 BB
River - +3 BB to you.
By the river there are 18.25 BB in the pot and you close the action. At this point, I don't think you are winning most of the time, but you only need to win once out of ~15 times to make the call worth it. For that reason, I'm not sure I like the fold on the river.
However, getting there is where I am really not too sure about. Assuming this is HL, you have a very good starting hand. On the flop though, I'm not too happy with it - even with top two because of the flush and straight draws. On the turn - and here's where we really need to know the suit of the card (because you have 2 Qc out...) - if the queen is the spade - I think you have to fold (straight and flush could have both hit). If it is not the spade (or if you hold the spade) - I'm still not too happy with a bet and a couple of calls.
Villain3's raise is of course the worst that can happen after you call - because you still have the odds to call, but you still haven't seen that last card. Here, if you have any idea of how he plays (for instance, is he normally raising with nothing, or only with the nuts?) it should help you decide whether to call or fold.
Still, I think I prefer another raise on the turn rather than a flat call, but I like a fold most of all. In all likelihood, you are not drawing to 6 outs because some of your cards are going to be accounted for. Also, if the final card is a king or a queen you have put yourself in a precarious position if now it comes Bet and raise in front of you. While you can't always be scared of monsters under the bed, but I would say that 9 out of 10 times, if the betting were like this you are either losing or splitting.
Actually, now that I'm looking at this more, I'm not real happy with the flop raise either. It shouldn't do anything to knock anyone out that is calling anyway and the only thing that will help your hand is 4 outs. While you might be ahead here, any spade, any 9, T, J or Q really doesn't help you (the queen does give you a runner out - but it is unlikely to hit). Anything 8 or lower on the turn puts a low draw out which you can't get...
So now that I've looked a little deeper, I think it is pretty clear to me that you shouldn't raise the flop (although a call is reasonable) and that you should fold on the turn for one bet. If you do call the original bet on the turn, you call the raise and pay off on the river.
/dStatistics: Posted by starstealer — Wed May 18, 2005 11:20 am
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