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Lets do a little math. The pot is 11SB with me to act with 4 players
left to act behind me.
If I raise and get 2 callers, everyone calls the turn, and 1 player
calls the river the final pot will be 13BB and I will have put in 3BB.
Lets say I call (instead of raise) and get 1 more caller on the flop
and 1 more callers on the turn then the final pot will be the same but
I will have put in 2.5BB.
Probabilities:
- 75%ish of the time there will be a low so value of the low half will be 13 / 2 *.75 = 4.9.
- The value of the top 1/2 will be 13 / 2 * .75 + 13 * .25 = 8.1.
- If there is a low out I will have it 2:3 and 1:3 I will not.
For the raise let R be the % I win the high:
EV = 8.1H + (.66)(4.9) – 3 = 8.1R + .25
For the call let C be the % I win the high:
EV = 8.1H + (.66)(4.9) – 2.5 = 8.1C +.75
That means if 8.1R + .25 = 8.1C + .75 then I will break even with my raise. That will happened whenever 8.1(R – C) = .5 or R – C = .0617
If I have done everything right that a raise would have to win my chance of winning the high by 6% for the raise to be +EV. (It also means that I have a job that allows me to do these calculations instead of doing real work but that a topic for another post).
Does pushing that 1 player out of the pot give me 6% more PE? Add in the fact that a raise puts me in control of the hand, give me the opportunity to get a free card on the turn, gives me good info on what my opponents are playing, and may push more the 1 players out of the pot and I think that the raise is a play that I will continue to make.
Statistics: Posted by GooperMC — Mon Jun 06, 2005 7:50 pm
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I know I am an aggressive O8 player but I still think the advantages of raising here far outway the cost of one measley small bet.
Monk
xxxxx
Statistics: Posted by Felonius_Monk — Mon Jun 06, 2005 1:08 pm
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I though that the player in front of me was betting the flush draw (which he was) so I was hoping to get HU with him which obviously didn't work.
Statistics: Posted by GooperMC — Mon Jun 06, 2005 10:32 am
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Preflop: Hero is MP3 with
![[3c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/3c.gif "The Three of Clubs")
, ![[Ac]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ac.gif "The Ace of Clubs")
, ![[2c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/2c.gif "The Two of Clubs")
, ![[7h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/7h.gif "The Seven of Hearts")
.2 callers, I raise, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls
Flop:
![[5h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/5h.gif "The Five of Hearts")
, ![[Kh]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Kh.gif "The King of Hearts")
, ![[As]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/As.gif "The Ace of Spades")
(5 players)Check, check, player to my right (villain) bets, I raise, SB folds, BB calls, fold, fold, villain calls.
Turn:
![[9h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9h.gif "The Nine of Hearts")
(3 players)BB checks, villain bets, I call.
River:
![[Ks]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ks.gif "The King of Spades")
(3 players)BB checks, villain bets, I fold, BB folds.
Here is my play by play:
Pre-flop:
I had two total rocks sitting to my left (one had a VP$IP of 9 and the other was 13) and the SB and BB were both very loose. I figured that the two players to my left were most likely going to fold even if I limped and the SB / BB were going to call regardless of what I did. In that situation I might as well raise because it puts more money in the pot and it probably ends up with the same amount of players in the pot.
Flop:
I don’t think that my As are going to hold up unless I can get a bunch of people out of this pot. Am I overvaluing TP here? I just feel like a call resigns my hand to a low draw only and I was hoping that a raise would clear out some of the riff raff.
Turn:
Bad turn but I still have odds to call with just my low draw.
River:
Damn. Click fold and curse (I do that a lot playing O8)
I am very interested in what you guys think of the flop raise but other comments are welcome.
Statistics: Posted by GooperMC — Sun Jun 05, 2005 8:54 pm
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