Pre-flop:
Good raise.
Flop:
I would make a continuation bet here. If your opponents are playing random cards then there is around a 45% chance that someone had the 4, and around a 5% chance someone has KK. Since you raised pre-flop the probability of both goes down some (how much depends on the opponents). You have:
- 2 outs for the boat
- A backdoor low draw
- Better then 50% fold equity.
- Position
Combine all of those together and I think a continuation bet is +EV.
A continuation bet also will also
- Give you a free turn if you want if (if there is a low card)
- Clean up your backdoor low draw. No naked A2 can call that bet
- Give you a ton of info. After that bet you will know with some degree of accuracy what all of your opponents are playing.
Turn:
If you potted the flop and someone called this is an easy check fold. Even with the check on the flop I still think this is fold. Lets look at your EV.
Pot is $10 and you have to call $2 so you are getting 5:1. You have
- 2 clean outs with AA
- 2 possibly clean outs with a K
- 2 possibly clean outs with a 4
At best you have 6 outs and 1 card to see so for this call to be +EV you need 6.3:1 pot odds. That would mean on average when you hit your would have to have someone call a $2 river bet which I think is reasonable. However you really don’t know those K’s and 4’s are clean outs and if you only count the AA outs you would basically have to stack someone for that call to be EV. I think a call here is marginal so I would lean toward folding. I only like to enter marginal situations if I am the aggressor or I have a good read (which isn't very often at the PL25 tables).
River:
I don’t hate the bet here as much as everyone else does because PL25 players will call value bets on the river with middle pocket pairs here. I probably wouldn’t do it because you still have no idea what your opponents are playing that this looks like a prime CR card for someone with KK or a 4. Also with the action on previous streets I don’t think that a middle PP would still be in this hand.
As many times as I have seen someone call a bet with a middle pocket pair here (and even bet sometimes) I have never seen someone raise. When you do get raised ask yourself what hands will raise that you beat? QQ? With villains turn bet and this CR unless I had a good read on him I would fold.Statistics: Posted by GooperMC — Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:52 am
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