cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ks 3d Ah Jh 0 203 325 0 0 469 59 0.220
4s 3c 9d 6d 2 325 203 0 2 526 0 0.310
As 2s Qc 3h 0 0 528 0 29 5 494 0.261
Js Ac 4d 2h 0 0 528 0 3 90 435 0.209
Changed the 2c to a 3d in RiverTrouble's hand, and it does interesting things to the EV calculations.
Still not sure what to make of this.
Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Tue Aug 09, 2005 10:09 pm
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Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 528 enumerated boards containing 5c 8h 7h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ks 2c Ah Jh 0 203 325 0 0 63 465 0.339
4s 3c 9d 6d 1 325 203 0 1 527 0 0.309
As 2s Qc 3h 0 0 528 0 58 5 465 0.202
Js Ac 4d 2h 0 0 528 0 4 59 465 0.151
Interesting... I have no idea what to make of this.
We all seem to think that ATP should dump his hand, but his all-in is +EV. Yet both of the made lows with no high potential have -EV... even with counterfeit insurance.
of course, no one can know that there are three A2 hands out there, so that certainly skews the EV calculation. But still....
Comments?
Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Tue Aug 09, 2005 9:51 pm
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Monk: I hope you understand the fact that I can't really read hand histories when loaded with beer, so I didn't really notice that ATP69 was BB.
In fact, most of my errors in this forum are, well, due to beer goggles.Gooper: Do you not like the fact that PLAFRFUN has the 3 as an extra low card? My intuition tells me that he has enough justification to call -- much more than foldemnever. WIth four people in the pot, it makes me think that he is getting good odds to hit a 2 and get all of the low (this will happen about 20% of the time, right?). This is, of course, not knowing how many of the other three players hold A2. Maybe I give too much credit to this extra nut low card. Your thoughts?
Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Tue Aug 09, 2005 6:18 pm
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Anybody who, in ATP69's situation, is pushing their stack in here is making a big mistake.
PLAYFRFUN probably shouldn't lead A2 on that board into such a multiway pot, with no shot at high. Maybe check and see what transpires?
Foldemnever can't really fold, given his short stack. His mistake was playing $100PLO8 with a $19 stack. That sucks.
Rivertrouble played it just right. I like the small raise here; he probably won't get rid of any nut lows with a maximum raise BUT he actually wants to keep in anyone playing high; because he needs the heart to make ANY sort of high, he won't win high unless it hits. Therefore, it makes no difference whether one or 4 players call him with high-orientated hands; he wins if a heart hits and loses high if it doesn't. Therefore, all the other high hands are in effect dead money against this guy, if one player calls with a winning high hand (which they will do). So, the best play is to try to maneuvre EVERYONE in to swell the pot as big as possible with this monster hand. The small raise is a smart way to do this; once everyone starts pouring money in this guy can go to the felt without a second thought knowing he's bigtime +EV. This hand is a bona fide multiway monster.
Incidentally, if it's heads-up, Rivertrouble might try a maximum raise on the flop; although he's liable to be favourite over more or less any hands, there's no shame in establishing a strong bluffing position or betting someone who has something like a set or two-pair out of half the pot, whilst building it up if they want to play.
Monk
xxxxx
Statistics: Posted by Felonius_Monk — Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:22 pm
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That is quite a hand. It illustrates to me several key points and ways the game changes when you go from limit to PL or NL. Here's my take on how everybody played their hands. One more point before I start, the play in this hand is driven mostly by the fact that 3 of the 4 players have 1/3 or less of a buy in. Not coincidently, the best play of this hand was made by the winner, who has more than a full stack. That's a common theme at every PL/NL O/8 table I've played, if a player has more than a buy in, he should be watched to determine if he's a gamer or just gotten lucky in a big pot. If somebody has less than half a buy in, 90% of the time they can safely be categorized as huge fish. If all the players had full stacks, the decisions would be much tougher and more crucial. Since all these low stacks "flopped the nuts", when the betting gets crazy it's easy for them to toss in their last few dollars and assume they're good.
ATP69 - This is a nightmare situation for him, and you can tell by his actions that he realizes he's in no mans land on the flop. Yeah he flopped the nuts, but I don't think he's checking to trap, I think he's checking to try to control the pot and get away on the turn cheaply if the board pairs or a heart comes. This illustrates the problem with this kind of hand in PLO/8, that you can flop the nuts and yet not drive the betting with it. The issue is that any hand he can flop well to, is going to put a low out. So yes he's got the high side locked up on the flop, but there's plenty of re-draws, not to mention the low already out. This situation, where you've got the made low/nut flush draw is where I've made 90% of my money in PL and NL. Just get the money against the best high hand and when you hit your flush, scoop and if not, nothing was lost. If I were in his spot though, I probably would have played it the same way. Check to see a good turn card before going nuts. Once everybody starts betting and raising, I would have either folded or moved in myself when the betting got back to me. It wouldn't have mattered in this case since the flush draw had the nut low too, but if the flush draw (or a set/two pair hand) was just out without the nut low, moving in might deter a call from them if that's all they had. If he has a full stack, his decision if much tougher. He can cold call these bets, but then what does he do when it's re-potted to him for half his stack? He'd obviously like to see a turn card, but for half your stack, I would think he'd have to fold here.
The A-2 hands without the flush draw : Me personally, I don't like betting the pot in this spot. The board is coordinated and a flush draw is possible. I mean, yes you're making them pay to draw, but you have virtually no high options yourself, so anybody that calls probably has you beat. Not to mention the possibility of being counterfeited or other A2's out. Why not check and see who likes the flop behind you? Once you bet the pot, get cold called, and then re-potted and that cold called, you know two things for sure, there's definitely another A2 out and you have 0 high side of the pot equity. With deep stacks, this would be a fine place to fold your hand. In the above situation, I would move in too, hope all 4 players came along and that an Ace or 2 hit to counterfeit somebody and let me steal half a pot. One caveat, if this is a weak/tight table, a pot bet here may allow you to take the pot now, or narrow the field down enough that another pot bet on the turn could win you the pot, especially if a scare card hits. If that's the case, I prefer a pot bet to a check here.
The A-2 and flush draw : His play was the bees knees. It was tits. Say it however you want, I'd play it the exact same way. Jam that flop until those short stacks are all in, then cross your fingers and start chanting "hearts".
Statistics: Posted by Drade — Tue Aug 09, 2005 11:54 am
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***** Hand History for Game 2505134876 *****
$100 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Tuesday, August 09, 12:31:38 EDT 2005
Table Table 36767 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Ribbo ( $105.50 )
Seat 2: nycpokerguy9 ( $91 )
Seat 4: Banbury_Boy ( $67.60 )
Seat 6: RiverTrouble ( $137.77 )
Seat 7: sawder ( $70.13 )
Seat 9: ATP69 ( $34.76 )
Seat 10: PLAYFRFUN ( $32.43 )
Seat 8: CreuxChief ( $124.45 )
Seat 5: ackid026 ( $99 )
Seat 3: foldemnever ( $19 )
CreuxChief posts small blind [$0.50].
ATP69 posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
PLAYFRFUN calls [$1].
Ribbo folds.
nycpokerguy9 calls [$1].
foldemnever calls [$1].
Banbury_Boy folds.
ackid026 folds.
RiverTrouble calls [$1].
sawder calls [$1].
CreuxChief calls [$0.50].
ATP69 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7h, 8h, 5c ]
CreuxChief checks.
ATP69 checks.
PLAYFRFUN bets [$6.65].
nycpokerguy9 folds.
foldemnever calls [$6.65].
RiverTrouble raises [$13.30].
sawder folds.
CreuxChief folds.
ATP69 calls [$13.30].
PLAYFRFUN is all-In [$24.78]
foldemnever is all-In [$11.35]
RiverTrouble raises [$36.26].
ATP69 is all-In [$20.46]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qs ]
** Dealing River ** [ 5h ]
RiverTrouble shows [ 2c, Ks, Jh, Ah ] a flush, ace high.
RiverTrouble shows 8,7,5,2,A for low.
ATP69 doesn't show [ 9d, 3c, 4s, 6d ] a straight, five to nine.
ATP69 doesn't show 8,7,5,4,3 for low.
PLAYFRFUN shows [ 3h, Qc, As, 2s ] two pairs, queens and fives.
PLAYFRFUN shows 8,7,5,2,A for low.
foldemnever shows [ 2h, Js, 4d, Ac ] a pair of fives.
foldemnever shows 8,7,5,2,A for low.
RiverTrouble wins $7.90 from side pot #3 with a flush, ace high.
RiverTrouble wins Lo ($7.90) from side pot #3 with 8,7,5,2,A.
RiverTrouble wins $2.33 from side pot #2 with a flush, ace high.
RiverTrouble wins Lo ($2.33) from side pot #2 with 8,7,5,2,A.
RiverTrouble wins $20.15 from side pot #1 with a flush, ace high.
PLAYFRFUN wins Lo ($10.07) from side pot #1 with 8,7,5,2,A.
RiverTrouble wins Lo ($10.07) from side pot #1 with 8,7,5,2,A.
RiverTrouble wins $38 from the main pot with a flush, ace high.
foldemnever wins Lo ($12.67) from the main pot with 8,7,5,2,A.
PLAYFRFUN wins Lo ($12.67) from the main pot with 8,7,5,2,A.
RiverTrouble wins Lo ($12.66) from the main pot with 8,7,5,2,A.
Should any of these players folded? If so, when? I am particulary curious about what your comments are about the guy with the nut high on the flop and no strong low.
Honestly, I think ATP69 should have folded preflop, but given that fact that he flopped the nuts, what is his best play?
Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Tue Aug 09, 2005 10:39 am
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