some questions that i would have asked that would have informed my decision:
- whose letting who draw? a raise on the flop could push out str8 draws (e.g., broadway), and a raise on the turn could have pushed out a flush draw and/or made the flush draw pay for missing.
- what is he holding that would inspire him to bet only $1 on the turn? my guess is "not the nuts". it looks like he's trying to buy the pot. if he had the str8, he would most likely have potted to push out the flush draw.
- what is my read on this player? ok, maybe this guy is a complete moron and plays like this with the nuts. i'm thinking most players at this level don't -- it seems like most of them jam whenever they get the chance (e.g., nut str8). do his pto/pahud stats suggest that he's different?
- if Villain or the other player has the str8 on the flop, what are the chances that i will get to see the turn and/or river cheaply? i'm thinking almost 0.
anyway, the more i look at the hand, i like raising on the turn more than the flop, but i definitely think that a flop raise can be justified at least some percentage of the time.
also, keep in mind that i really like selective aggression in cases like this. even if i have to fold to a reraise, it advertises that i will raise with less than the nuts. later when i do have the nuts, i will often get called down when i otherwise wouldn't. furthermore, this kind of aggression takes down a surprising number of pots.
ymmvStatistics: Posted by Kuso — Tue Oct 04, 2005 4:40 pm
]]>