$75 into a $120-odd pot you only need to be winning the hand a little more than 25% of the time to break even on the call. I'd estimate against the average 100plo player you're ahead over 50% of the time here. You really think the average 100plo player has 2-4 here 75% of the time?I still think it's an easy, easy call!
Statistics: Posted by Felonius_Monk — Mon Nov 28, 2005 5:21 pm
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My opponent knows I have a made hand like a set. He knows the pot is big. He knows that I have to call most of the time due to pot odds. He knows that the hand he is representing is very unlikely. He knows that not many people at the $100 level are good enough to even think about laying a hand down there.
In short, we both know that based on cards and odds, a bluff has a low chance of succeeding, and, in fact, probably is -EV.
If everyone says easy call here, then he will know as well that I have an "easy call", and why would anyone make a bluff that only generates an easy call and not a tough decision for the opponent? I can only think that he was thinking from a different angle, and that he reasoned that I wouldn't put him on a bluff precisely because a bluff is unlikely to succeed in that place...
Statistics: Posted by Ojingo — Mon Nov 28, 2005 2:13 pm
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