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I dont like the value bet idea because a raise on top would almost certainly mean a boat while the str8 will probably call the smaller bet.
However, I dont know if i would call an all-in in the first place. When you btp on the turn he had to put you on a str8. So he had a str8, flush draw with 2-pair/set, just flush draw or just set. I dont think a str8 would push when checked to unless he is a good player who realizes you dont have a boat and might can get another str8 to fold and take the whole pot. A boat would obviously push. Only other push would be a pure bluff (busted flush or Top two).
If you will call an all-in pushing first is always right...
however, lets see if pushing is correct even if you would fold to an all-in.
RESULTS OF MATH AT BOTTOM:
Clearly betting has the best EV when the villian has nothing or a straight. When villian has a boat you lose $32.20.
41.6% villian could have a boat and betting would be break even with check-folding.
**This is with the villain bluffing 20% of the time when checked to with nothing and BTP with his straight 30% of the time when checked to** Against a less aggressive opponent the boat percentage could be higher.
The Math
Both have Str8
Betting
(x% * 41.80) + (y% * 20.90)
x% = percentage Villian folds straight
y% = percentage Villian calls with straight
x = 60%; EV = +$33.44
Checking
(x% * -20.90) + (y% * 20.90)
x% = percentage Villian BTP
y% = percentage Villian checks
x = 15%; EV = +$14.63
x = 30%; EV = +$8.36
Difference
Betting = +$18.81 to +$25.08
Villian has Boat
Betting
-$32.20
checking
$0.00
Difference
Betting = -$32.20
Villian has Nothing
Betting
+41.80
Checking
x% = percentage Villian bluffs
y% = percentage Villian checks
(x% * 0.00) + (y% * 41.80)
x = 10%; EV = +$37.62
x = 20%; EV = +$33.44
Difference
Betting = +4.18 to +$8.36
Now to figure a percentage that the villain can have boat and hero breaks even:
18.81+4.18 * x% + y% (-32.20)
x% * 22.99 + y% * -32.20 = 0
x% + y% = 100%; x% = 100% - y%
(1-y) * 22.99 + -32.20y = 0
22.99 - 22.99y + -32.20y = 0
-55.19y=-22.99
y = .416 = 41.6%
Statistics: Posted by Spank_her_Pair — Wed Nov 30, 2005 11:37 pm
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BB ($38.45)
UTG ($25.45)
UTG+1 ($60.85)
Hero ($49.25)
MP2 ($59.25)
CO ($50)
Button ($44.70)
SB ($23.70)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with
![[Jd]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Jd.gif "The Jack of Diamonds")
, ![[Kd]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Kd.gif "The King of Diamonds")
, ![[7c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/7c.gif "The Seven of Clubs")
, ![[Qc]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Qc.gif "The Queen of Clubs")
. 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, BB checks.
Flop: ($3)
![[Tc]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Tc.gif "The Ten of Clubs")
, ![[Ah]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ah.gif "The Ace of Hearts")
, ![[8c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/8c.gif "The Eight of Clubs")
(6 players)SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2.85, MP2 folds, Button calls $2.85, SB calls $2.85, BB calls $2.85, UTG+1 folds.
Turn: ($14.40)
![[Qd]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Qd.gif "The Queen of Diamonds")
(4 players)SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $13.7, Button calls $13.70, SB folds, BB folds.
River: ($41.80)
![[Td]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Td.gif "The Ten of Diamonds")
(2 players)Hero bets $32.2 (All-In), Button folds.
Final Pot: $74
I didn't think I could bet and not call an all in so I thought I might as well bet in case he had same straight and think I boated. Not sure I like that line but I was confused. After so many callers on the flop, i figured my flush was probably not good anymore. Do you value bet the river like $15 and call all in? check/call?
Statistics: Posted by briachek — Wed Nov 30, 2005 3:20 pm
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