$16 to play a $42 pot, let's assume your 22 is good 30% of the time (seems reasonable, if even a bit conservative - this IS 50plo and he is a short stack and there are only two hands that beat you). Let's assume that you win 60% of the time when you hold the current winner (also possibly a little conservative).
So you win for a $26 profit 60% of the time (profit = $15.6) and lose your $16 stake 40% of the time (loss = $6.4) making a $9.2 profit 30% of the time = $2.80 profit.
The other 70% of the time we'll assume you have outs that win for you perhaps 30% of the total pot equity considering all the possible beating hands he might have (this seems reasonable - if the raiser has a set your flush draw is liable to be good, and you can always hit another 2 in any case, and the bd straight draw is worth a % or two. Also, sometimes (though unusually) you'll be beat by the shortest stack and still be winning the sidepot, so that's worth a few bucks too). So you win for a $26 profit 30% of the time (profit = $7.8) and lose your $16 stake 70% of the time (loss = $11.2) making a total loss of $3.40 70% of the time, or $2.40. This gives an overall profit of a princely 40 cents.
So you only need to be ahead in this pot something like 30% of the time to show a profit, albeit a tiny one. My thinking is that short stacks will push with less than 88 or KK often enough that you wil be ahead a sufficient amount of time here at this level to be able to call without a read. If I am the short stack I would play K8 the same way (there are nine permutations of K8 and only six combined pemutations of 88 or KK) and many players (at least in the crappy 100 and 200 games I play at crypto and party, even sometimes up to 400) will play short stacks because they like to gamble with draws, so you can't rule out the nut flush draw either. K2 and even 82 are other possibilities. I think there is a very high probability this player, given the little we know about him, pushes K8, and a reasonable possibility he pushes K2, as well as outside possibilities he pushes the nut flush draw, 82, or something like AA with a weak flush draw, or indeed that he's a complete LAG balloon (remember we know nothing about him!) and is pushing practically any four. Given there are only 6 possible permutations of 88 and KK, I would say it takes a fairly pessimistic outlook to believe you're not ahead more than the 30% or so of the time it takes to turn a profit on this proposition.
Given a regular 50plo player I'd reckon you'd be ahead here something like 40-50% of the time, which would turn you a reasonable EV profit on the hand in the $5-10 range.
My take on it anyhow.
MonkStatistics: Posted by Felonius_Monk — Sat Dec 17, 2005 6:54 am
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