Using my method the new numbers should give these results..
Sleepy folds, Xas wins $257
Sleepy calls and loses, Xas wins $597 72.9% of the time = $435.21
Sleepy calls and wins, Xas loses $597 27.1% of the time = $161.78
Sleepy calls = $435.21 - $161.78 = $273.43
EV difference between folding and calling: $273.43 - $257 = $16.43
I don't need to assign probabilities to the fold/call decision as i'm not calculating the EV of Xas's push, i'm calculating the EV of Sleepy's call. About subtracting the two figures, that's a bit confusing and it's my fault, the reason is that the line
Sleepy calls and wins, Xas loses $597 27.1% of the time = $161.78
Should really have the answer of -$161.78 (because that's the amount Xas would LOSE, not win), and since it's a negative, i simply subtracted it (adding a negative is subtracting)..Statistics: Posted by GodlikeRoy — Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:22 am
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