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I was playing in an MTT once where I was dealt AA and 4 people jumped all-in before me.
So here's the thought experiment ... simple ... what do you do?
In my $2.00 freezeout MTT ... I called. I was very surprised that my aces actually held up ... too many ways to get sucked out on. (I didn't catch an Ace either.) So that's fine and well and good for a $2 funament. (And a nice way to quintuple up ... I went on to win that tourney prolly because of that one hand.)
However what if you're at the WSOP main event, day 2. Would you make the same play? I have to say I wouldn't. I would agree with BK completely, and simply wait for a better spot. Better spots WILLcome, and you can fold a monster in the meantime. It's not about winning the pot, it's about winning the tournament. Any play which makes you likely to get knocked out of a tourney is not the best play AT THE TIME despite the EV of the hand. Just because everyone else has it worse than you, does not mean that you're really in good shape. This is not a cash game. It is a tourney. Sure you're prolly the favorite preflop hand (although given the action, that's not certain) ... but without running the numbers ... you're far more likely to get knocked out than win. Simple as that. Once you're knocked out ... there is NO $. So IMO ... 30-40% EV to win means you're more than likely to get nothing and lose your buyin.
I don't believe it is correct to play hands in a tournament based completely on the EV of the hand ... we are not dealing with the long run. We are dealing with the instant 1-hand short run.
So with all that being said ... in this particular instance, I agree with Pok's call. (Given stack sizes in relation to the blinds.) This could have been the best chance that was going to come before getting blinded off.
Edit: Afterthought ... ATE the expert said something which stuck with me even in cash games ... "Why get all your money in on a coin-flip, when your opponents will throw all-in when you're 80/20 favorite?"
Statistics: Posted by pokerzen — Wed Feb 28, 2007 2:42 am
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1: there are MORE than 1 way for each of those hands to be out there (more than one way for someone to have AA)...and don't forget you're flippig a coin with KQ/AQ/AK
2: ACTION NARROWS DOWN THE POSSIBLE HOLDINGS...so when there's YOUR open raise, a RERAISE, and a COLD CALL (both of which were either from bigger or equivalent stacks...if it were shortstacks, that's diff)...this should say FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD
Statistics: Posted by black_knight6 — Sat Feb 24, 2007 11:10 pm
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Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t400/t800
(Ante: t50)
9 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: t14200
UTG+1: t4727
Hero: t12192
MP2: t7502
MP3: t6156
CO: t4834
Button: t44996
SB: t11718
BB: t7105
Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP1 with
![[Jd]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Jd.gif "The Jack of Diamonds")
![[Js]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Js.gif "The Jack of Spades")
2 folds, Hero raises to t2400, 3 folds, Button raises all-in t44946, SB calls all-in t11268, BB folds, Hero calls all-in t9742.
Uncalled bets: t32804 returned to Button.
Flop:
![[Qd]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Qd.gif "The Queen of Diamonds")
![[7c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/7c.gif "The Seven of Clubs")
![[9d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9d.gif "The Nine of Diamonds")
(t14518, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: t36254)Turn:
![[3c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/3c.gif "The Three of Clubs")
(t14518, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: t36254)River:
![[Kh]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Kh.gif "The King of Hearts")
(t14518, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: t36254)Results:
Final pot: t14518
SB showed Ad Kc
Button showed 8c 8s
Hero showed Jd Js
Statistics: Posted by Pok 7's — Fri Feb 23, 2007 12:39 am
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