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Calling an all-in decision is about putting your opponent on a range of hands and figuring out if you are ahead of that range, or if you have correct odds to call to outdraw that range. In this case you put your opponent on AA, KK and QQ as you said in your OP. That means you are drawing to 2 outs to win, which is about a 10-to-1 shot by the river. You aren't getting anywhere near those odds, so you should have folded, given the range you put your opponent on.
What I am saying is that the range you put him on is unlikely. Perhaps there is a 5% chance of him having AA/KK and a 5% chance of him having QQ. Those numbers are generous, too, as most players at this level will re-raise PF with big pairs, regardless of the action before them. So back to my numbers; there is a 10% chance that you are drawing to 2 outs, and a 90% chance that your opponent is drawing to 5 outs (any pair). This is a very simple example as it isn't including the times he is pushing as a complete bluff, or with an underpair.
Anyway, i'm not going to do the EV calculations because i doesn't take much to see that if 1 out of 10 times you're behind and 9 out of 10 times you're ahead, getting the odds you're getting, you want your money in the middle 10 out of 10 times.
Does this clear things up at all?
Statistics: Posted by GodlikeRoy — Wed May 31, 2006 4:51 am
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Ugh Im confused
Statistics: Posted by SNGNOOB — Wed May 31, 2006 4:43 am
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BUT, he usually wont have AA/KK/QQ here because he did not re-raise preflop, therefore his range is Qx and possibly 66/44, but it is unlikely for anyone to open-push with a set in this position.
Statistics: Posted by GodlikeRoy — Wed May 31, 2006 4:32 am
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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) from (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
BB ($11.35)
UTG ($10.10)
UTG+1 ($3.80)
MP1 ($10)
Hero ($8.95)
MP3 ($10.45)
CO ($4.40)
Button ($9.85)
SB ($5.30)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K
, K
. UTG raises to $0.4, UTG+1 calls $0.40, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.6, 4 folds, BB calls $1.50, UTG calls $1.20, UTG+1 folds.
Flop: ($5.25) 4
, Q
, 6 (3 players)BB bets $9.75 (All-In), UTG folds, Hero calls $7.35 (All-In).
Turn: ($22.35) J
(2 players, 2 all-in)River: ($22.35) K
(2 players, 2 all-in)Final Pot: $22.35
Results in white below:
BB has Ad Qc (one pair, queens).
Hero has Kd Kc (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins $19.95. BB wins $2.40.
Statistics: Posted by SNGNOOB — Wed May 31, 2006 4:11 am
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