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Now me being the lazy PoS that I am, there's no way i'm going to go ahead and work all that out, but, go ahead
Statistics: Posted by GodlikeRoy — Thu Jun 29, 2006 11:00 pm
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Say MP has JJ (which is better for MP than QQ). BB has QT. Stick all that into two dimes and Ice is a 73.81% favorite (BB has 21.4% chance).
Okay two scenarios:
1) POOOOOSH. Ice pushes, MP folds, and BB calls like it happened in the hand. At that point we are talking about just the $600 in profit Ice can win by pushing versus value betting. What's already in the pot is a sunk cost and shouldn't influence this decision.
So Ice said the guy calls about 1/2 the time. So Ice wins 600 about 1/2 the time. However, he's a 73.8% favorite and the QT guy will suck out sometimes. So that's 600 * .5 * .7381 = $221.4 EV
2) RAISE DECENT-- Ice puts in a $300 raise. He's going to call a river push if a flush hits (even though he'll hate it). Assume QT guy calls, and MP guy might call with his overpair.
Say MP will call 50% of the time with his overpair. So that's a potential profit of $450 (300 from BB who calls every time and 300/2 from MP who only calls 1/2 the time). Okay on that potential profit, Ice wins 73.8% fo the time for EV of $332. But Ice is going to call when the flush hits on the river. It will hit 21.4%. So he'll lose 300*21.4%= (64.2). That's a net EV of $332 less 64.2 = $267.8 EV
So Raising has a net EV of 267.8 while pushing has a net EV of 221.4. The added difference being that the guy with the overpair calls some.
Other notes: If MP with overpair only calls 33% of the time, it's about a push.
If in scenario 1, he'll call a push 66% of the time, then the EV for scenario 1 is 295 and better. Wow that 16% really adds up. So I guess, you really need a feel for if the guy will call the push. Great than 50% you should push?
Enough math for today
Statistics: Posted by T-Rod — Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:16 pm
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![[Tc]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Tc.gif "The Ten of Clubs")
[4s][8s].Statistics: Posted by iceman5 — Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:17 pm
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You think you are ahead, more than one caller and the money is good for just one pair already.
Statistics: Posted by Magz — Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:59 pm
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I open pushed $600 into the $450 pot and got called by the BB. He had
![[Qs]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Qs.gif "The Queen of Spades")
[Ts].MP folded what I would guess was QQ.
BB had what? 14 outs? He missed them and I won a nice healthy pot.
I lose value here probably 1/2 the time or more by pushing, but as you can see, I WILL get called by hands that I have beat at times and that makes up for the times I lose value. Ive said before that the old phrase "you'll only get called by hands that beat you" is very wrong.
The problem I see with betting $300 is that if one of them calls and the flush hits the river, I have to make a guess as to whether they have it or not and I probably have to call anyway since the pot is so big.
I like to play in a way to make my decisions easier and I think I did it here.
Statistics: Posted by iceman5 — Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:39 pm
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