You clearly put him on an overpair (and aren't worried at all about an 8?), in which case he has only 2 outs, so I'm not really THAT worried about giving the free card if it buys you some equity--i.e., he's going to bluff the river with a loser fairly sizeably (and possibly call an all-in raise with a loser).
I'm a bit concerned about several possible holdings for him, though. If he's that loose, it's in principle hard to exclude 98s (particularly clubs) or such. Since you have Ac, he can't have a big ace with flush draw, so that's convenient. Anyhow, the more you can exclude suited connectors from his range, the more I like the check--if you get some equity out of it. If suited connectors are in there, I like it less.
Also, I'm gathering that you've been re-raising him with a fairly wide range--like at least JJ-AA, AK, maybe? If so, I think it becomes difficult for him to lay down at least QQ to a turn bet, and some players are going to have trouble throwing away JJ, too.
I like the check here if you're fairly confident that he'll then put you on AK with that play and bluff any river that doesn't have an A or K. After that action, do you think he'd call a river push with a loser (thinking you're trying to bluff your way out of a missed AK)?
Anyhow, I guess it's clear that standard, solid play is a bet on the turn. But I like the check if your history with this guy suggests that it's unlikely he's on a suited connector with a club draw or an 8 and if he's going to bet the river with a loser.Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:59 am
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