IOW, you flop a set 11.75 percent of the time. If more than 11.75 percent of your stack is in preflop, you made a -EV call preflop assuming you check/fold all misses. 11.75 percent of 2000 = $235. $250 is just barely more. But in this case, the BB already had 20 bucks in, plus there was 80 more in from the original raiser. So the BB did not make a -EV preflop call.
I'm assuming that because you're playing $2000 NL, the default for "unknown" player is "pretty good"?
I don't know WTF to do in this situation. I think a cold call might scare the **** out of him if he holds anything but the current nuts, because you could so easily have KK. If he bets the turn strong again so that it looks like all the money is going in, that could be the time to bail. Maybe that's spewing...? But no, I don't think so. Calling $450 into a $1050 pot, you only have to be ahead 1 time in 3.33 here. And those times you are ahead, he's going to slow down on the turn unless he's an uberbluffer. Call the flop and evaluate the turn.Statistics: Posted by k3nt — Sun Sep 03, 2006 11:12 am
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