First off, I don't view the turn check as any kind of slowplay, since ice bets the flop.
Second, I think it's going to be rather difficult to get $400 in the pot on the turn by betting out, unless you get really lucky and get raised. However, if there are two callers to a bet of $80 (which would be my own suggested amount), then you have a river pot of $340 and can bet another $120 normally. If the flush draw hits AND the board pairs, this is potentially a pretty profitable situation although a bit tricky to play (I'd consider check-raising the river at least against players who will bet aggressively on that one).
But if the river blanks, I can't see getting more than maybe $320 out of it (2 bets of $80 plus one river call for $160 or so) rather than $400.
Third, against very perceptive players (depending on table image as well), I don't think the check-raise works nearly as well. Objectively, there are really only 3 possibilities if you check the turn: 1) You were on a flush draw, 2) You had QTo and decided your kicker was no good with 2 callers (or possibly worse if you'll play Q9s or such in SB in a 6max game), 3) You have a set.
But the you check-raise, which I think simply means a definite for option 3. I can't imagine ice check-raising a flush draw on the turn (I know I wouldn't without a VERY detailed read/history with villain). So, the c-r has to mean set there, I would think.
I'm guessing that villain (if he's at least decent) overbet precisely because of the flush draw assumption, but didn't lay down because he didn't digest the possibility of alternative 3) quickly enough. If that were the case, check-raising the river MIGHT also have been an option, although I'm guessing that he didn't particularly like the first c-r and probably would have checked behind anyway. I think betting out the river is no doubt better against most players, although if they REALLY like to get aggro (basically, are known to overplay TP) against perceived weakness, the river check after the c-r might be an option.
This particular villain looks to me like a decent player (because I feel like he puts ice on a hand and plays his accordingly) who's just a bit on the cally side.
Anyhow, I find it very difficult to see how one is going to get $400 in the pot by betting out the turn--unless you get lucky and get raised. But if he would have been willing to raise the turn, then there's a strong likelihood that he'll call the river or even push to the c-r, I would think. I figure in 6max, Q8 is certainly going all the way and possibly even AQ.Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:45 pm
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