Chance of an overcard or a flush hitting the turn = 61.7%
(24 overcards, 5 additional flush cards not an overcard, so 29/47=61%)
So by checking, I'm basically falling behind in the hand. Can I really call any future bet? I doubt it.
By betting, I charge the FD, but I probably cannot bet the turn also since 60% of the time a scare card will hit, and the other 40% of the time I'll be wondering about my kicker. So even if he's on the FD, I'll bet 4 on the flop, check the turn giving him a freebie (regardless if the FD hit or not). So I basically give him 2.1:1 pot odds for both the flop and turn when a flush is 1.9:1 to hit on flop and turn. So I'm not really gaining too much there, and it assumes I never pay him off.
What hands pay me off that I beat? Not much. I guess hands like JT or AJ that are played by calling stations. Yuck.
SUMMARY: Most of the time the turn will scare me, I can't really charge a FD hard and make some money there, and very few cards are going to pay me off.
I'm leaning towards outright check/fold. Thoughts?Statistics: Posted by T-Rod — Mon Sep 25, 2006 2:23 pm
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