![[Ah]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ah.gif "The Ace of Hearts")
which kind of sucks.Statistics: Posted by Stoneburg — Sun Oct 15, 2006 4:42 am
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Even if the above doesn’t change your point of view what hands are going to go over the top for 7x the pot? I don’t think you will see much else besides a lesser made flush or Ahx. I’d favor the made flush because he’s hoping to stop a redraw or at least make them pay too much. I’m not worried about the nut flush going all in here as he’s freerolling to everything except Thx and getting beaten there is a 1 outer.
I suppose you might see a pure bluff like AA-KK with no redraw try it but it would surprise me to have it be statistically significant especially against 2 other villains one of whom has already raised. I’m going to randomly say that 1/3 of the time you call you are drawing dead and the rest of the time you are up against the Ahx hands. I ran a simulation with AhKc vs. your hand in Poker Stove. Your normal equity against a flush draw would be 65% but since a nut flush draw will allow straights (as well as 4K and two fullhouses) the equities changed to 58% for your hand to 42% for the drawing hand. Although I don’t think you will see bluffs here this often I’m just granting your hand the 65% equity it would have against a run of the mill straight draw and hope the times an A or Th make a straight or boat compensate for the times you win against a hand drawing dead aginst yours.
The pot is $23 when the Hero goes AI. He says he covers both who started with $100 so from the betting you would be calling $86 to win $109 or 1.27:1. If you wind up drawing dead 1/3 of the times you call the bet and win $109 65% of the rest of the time you are in a minus EV situation. If you think you might have a set calling AI your equity decreases slightly on all those hands where that happens by around 2%.
The math seems pretty clear, you need to be right about not drawing dead more than 2/3 of the time you make this call for it to be profitable for you. Barring some huge statistical over/underestimation, I think that's a good figure to use as a benchmark.
Statistics: Posted by Calaziar — Sat Oct 14, 2006 4:35 pm
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