guess is because everything is so situationally dependent you will just be screwing yourself by trying to find a 'magic number'. I say that because the 'magic number' would either wind up being incorrect far too often or it would become a 'magic range of numbers' that would have to be too large to be correct to make it useful.
It might be more useful to look at it from the POV of protecting a hand. Say you have JJ and the board comes J73r. There are 6 hands with gutshots. If there is 150 in the pot and your stack is 880 you probably need to think about protecting your whole stack as well as the pot amount because there are a number of scenarios where you will go AI (assume your opponent covers). You take the amount you want to protect (1,030) and divide it by his odds (he is 10.5:1 against hitting his gutshot). He gets proper odds on bets less than 98 so you want to bet say, 105-120 to make it a mistake for him to call.
With a draw you do the reverse. You estimate what you will win in addition to the pot if you hit, find the break even point, and then call/fold (raise is also possible of course, but for simplicity I'll ignore it.). If someone could write a program to do this in the 30 sec you generally have to make a decision online they would probably make some $. Even that program would be restricted by the users ability to estimate the amount his opponent was willing to lose on a given hand.
I got a number of these formulae from a book I purchased recently. If you are interested in the book's title PM me and I'll forward it. That will keep me from being a 'spammer'.Statistics: Posted by Calaziar — Sat Oct 21, 2006 1:55 pm
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