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i do think i could have led the turn. i can see him paying off with T-x to a turn bet. but i felt that the chances of him 2-barreling T-x or a bluff were greater than the chances of him paying off a turn bet.
after the turn action....i think his range can be broken down into 3 categories:
1. T-x. i should obviously c/f here. he's not folding trips on the river.
2. bluffs. i should obviously c/c here. he might fire 3 barrels (i've previously seen him fire 2). however i think the 2nd T on the river decreases the chance of him bluffing because he could easily put me on a T. so i think most blufs will probably give up.
3. stronger overpairs. i have enough left relative to the pot size, and my line is consistent enough with T-x that i might very well push him off KK or QQ if i bet big on the river. that's the most interesting part of the hand for me....whether he'll fold KK or QQ, and whether he has these frequently enough compared to T-x or a bluff.
the short answer is this: yes the hand would be easiest to play if i led the flop, and somewhat easier if i led the turn. but i don't think "easiest" equates to "most +EV".
jon
Statistics: Posted by ua1176 — Sat Oct 28, 2006 1:53 pm
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As played I think its a c/c on the river, but unless he's a total idiot, wtf are you beating now?
Statistics: Posted by Allstar7 — Sat Oct 28, 2006 1:44 pm
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CO raises to $5. he's the same scandinavian villain from my KK post. this is on a different table and about 30 minutes later. he seems loose and aggressive....not great but not completely stupid. i call from the SB with
![[Jc]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Jc.gif "The Jack of Clubs")
[Js]. i have $160 and he has about $115flop:
![[Td]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Td.gif "The Ten of Diamonds")
[7c][4h]pot: $11
i check, he bets $8. i call.
turn:
![[2s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/2s.gif "The Two of Spades")
pot: $27
i check, he bets $18, i call
river:
![[Th]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Th.gif "The Ten of Hearts")
pot: $63
thoughts? river plans?
thanks,
jon
Statistics: Posted by ua1176 — Sat Oct 28, 2006 1:07 pm
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