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Hand2. Stone, it would help to know what exact cards are suited. (I will assume
![[4h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/4h.gif "The Four of Hearts")
![[5h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/5h.gif "The Five of Hearts")
![[6s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/6s.gif "The Six of Spades")
flop. And say you have ![[7d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/7d.gif "The Seven of Diamonds")
![[8d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/8d.gif "The Eight of Diamonds")
.)Here I can't agree with the range :
6x, 77, flush draw, etc, more often than he has 44,55,66,65. He could also have 23 for a lower straight.
I think that it is almost never a flush draw (flop minraise could be a flush draw, turn minraise is a monster every time), same is true for 77. I also doubt that it could be 23, well, megadonks play 23s for a raise, but this is rare.
So I would say that with his range he can beat AA here. So it is 44, 55, 66, 64s, 65s, 67s, 68s, A6s, I would also add 23s but with lower weight let say 2 combinations instead of 4.
We are drawing dead vs 44, 55, 66, 64s, 56s – 12 combinations.
We are good vs 67s, 68s, A6s, 23s (we count only 2 of them ) - 9 combinations.
Making simple calculations we see that push is almost 0 EV, or slightly positive +EV if we add a random donk factor (Harrington’s 10%). (One need to include 10 redraw outs if villain has trips.)
I like another line that has higher EV. We call this minraise and push a non pairing river and check/fold if the board pairs, I think that villian will check behind with 23s, but even if he pushes it will not change much. ( I assume that villain will not be able to fold his trips even if a flush comes or another scare card.)
Statistics: Posted by Zmej — Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:40 am
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