against good players who take the same line with sets and combo draws (bet-3bet), then you have to consider laying down overpairs because the sets crush you so bad.
also....because of the above...i actually like flat-calling a flop bet with AA in this situation. and pounding on a good turn card. however...you cant do that here.....because the guy betting into you is betting $4 into a $16 pot. you have to raise that.
jon
Statistics: Posted by ua1176 — Thu Jan 04, 2007 11:59 pm
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http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2287197
pokenum -h ah ad - ks qc - qh jh -- kh th 8s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 8s Kh Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 378 41.86 525 58.14 0 0.00 0.419
Ks Qc 96 10.63 792 87.71 15 1.66 0.115
Qh Jh 414 45.85 474 52.49 15 1.66 0.467
You have 41.9 percent equity in the main pot, which is ($89.60 * 3) = $268.80
41.9% of $268.80 is $112.62.
The side pot between you and the button is another $40 or so, so your equity in that is probably another 18 bucks or so (45%). So your total equity is say $130. After your raise to $20 (you're not thinking about folding instead of raising to $20, are you??), you only have to put in another $83 to claim that equity in the pot. So your overall equity is $47 more than what you have to put in to claim it.
So ... if you fold this, you just burned about $47!
Of course, you got lucky that UTG called. If UTG had folded, it would have been a lot closer to break-even. But I'm sure it's still +EV. If you assume UTG will call half the time, it's definitely a big +EV play.
(EDIT: I miscalculated the first time. Fixed it.)
Statistics: Posted by k3nt — Thu Jan 04, 2007 11:54 am
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Just think of it like this... If there's 20 bucks in the pot, someone pushes for 100 and flips up QQ, are you going to even think about folding AK?
Statistics: Posted by Dumb Snowman — Thu Jan 04, 2007 2:32 am
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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) from (Format: Bet The Pot)
UTG ($89.60)
MP ($129.10)
CO ($107.65)
Button ($108.65)
Hero ($164.95)
BB ($98.50)
Preflop: Hero is SB with
![[Ad]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ad.gif "The Ace of Diamonds")
, ![[Ah]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ah.gif "The Ace of Hearts")
. UTG calls $1, 2 folds, Button raises to $5, Hero calls $4.50, 1 fold, UTG calls $4.
Flop: ($16)
![[8s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/8s.gif "The Eight of Spades")
, ![[Kh]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Kh.gif "The King of Hearts")
, ![[Th]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Th.gif "The Ten of Hearts")
(3 players)Hero checks, UTG bets $4, Button calls $4, Hero raises to $20, UTG calls $16, Button raises to $103.65, Hero raises to $159.95, UTG calls $64.60 (All-In).
Turn: ($364.20)
![[9s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9s.gif "The Nine of Spades")
(3 players, 1 all-in)River: ($364.20)
![[2h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/2h.gif "The Two of Hearts")
(3 players, 1 all-in)Final Pot: $364.20
Results in white below:
Hero has Ad Ah (one pair, aces).
UTG has Qc Ks (one pair, kings).
Button has Qh Jh (flush, king high).
Outcome: Button wins $364.20.
Statistics: Posted by schlep — Thu Jan 04, 2007 1:33 am
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