Most people arent checking behind in that spot.
They might or might not fold if I lead out big, and they might or might not fold to the CR.
So lets say I check and he has KQ
1) Maybe 20% of the time he checks behind
2) 80% of the time he bets $40 or so
3) Of the 80% he bets $40, he might fold to the CRAI 50%
I get nothing extra 20% of the time
I get $40 extra 40% of the time
I get $100 extra 40% of the time
Thats $56 in EV
If I lead $50 I think he calls 80%
Folds 20%
Thats $40 in EV.
Of course these are all estimates. The CRAI also helps in later hands when people shy away from value betting the river against me.Statistics: Posted by iceman5 — Sat Jan 06, 2007 2:39 pm
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