i think the odds of him playing a flush draw this way are close to 0. i would expect a flop raise almost every time, or maybe a turn shove if he had an OESD to go with it/paired the Ten.
also....as far as straight draws...the OESD + the double gutshot (76 and 64) both missed. 42 made a straight but i think this opponent gets more credit for preflop hand selection than 42.
finally- in regards to K3nt's comment on bet sizing....i misspoke in my original post. that $48 was all he had left. he'd started the hand with $80, so his $48 river bet was all-in.
muszu- i don't call against an Irishman without more history (my experience with irish players @ Tribeca is that they'll frequently have the flush), and probably not against a Londoner. but there is a very specific type of Scandinavian LAG play and absent any other information.....i think there's a large chance he's trying to buy the pot.
jonStatistics: Posted by ua1176 — Sun Jan 07, 2007 7:05 pm
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