Hand 2 - I don't like this much without a good read. Would you 3bet this flop with 44? I think calling his flop raise and raising if he leads the turn is a better way to a) pick off a bluff and b) make him fold an overpair/top pair type hand. Not many people would 3bet this flop with a monster hand and he doesn't yet know you are smart enough to mix up your play, so he will likely put you on air and call with most hands. This is assuming he's a good player. He may even push over the top with AK.
Anyway I would prefer to call and re-evaluate on the turn.
Just a little off topic but going back on what I was saying before about 3betting the flop - there's a concept being thrown around on 2+2 a bit in the past couple of weeks called the Yeti Theorem, which states that a 3bet on a dry board is almost always a bluff. It applies even more if you're the preflop raiser but I think can be applied to other cases too.
Now, because this has become mainstream(ish) knowledge, many players may see your 3bet as air and be more likely to come over the top as a bluff. Depending on the levels the players are thinking on, he also may fold because he knows that you know of the theorem and believes that you want him to think you have air, but in actuality have a big hand. I doubt that he would have that kind of read on you though given you haven't played with him much before.
These types of things occur all the time (another example is overbet shoving the river being the nuts - now a lot of people are doing this as a bluff, and the mind games go on). Keeping an eye out on these sorts of things can help a huge deal in playing against good, thinking opponents who may be reading 2+2 forums.Statistics: Posted by GodlikeRoy — Thu Mar 15, 2007 7:07 am
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