Statistics: Posted by gsdavid — Tue Apr 24, 2007 4:30 pm
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On the 8 times you catch, we'll assume he bets the turn and you push all-in every time you hit and he calls every time. In this case, you either win $223 when your hand holds up (his full stack + the 22 you put in already + the 1 from the blind), or else you lose $178 when he sucks out a boat (your $200 minus the $22 that's already gone before your turn decision).
He has 56 different hand combinations, 24 of them have 4 outs and 12 of them have 10 outs. (I'll take your word for all this). We'll assume 0 outs for the rest of his hands (runner-runner flushes / boats are possible but we'll ignore them.)
So you catch 8 times.
24/56ths of those 8 times, or 3.43 times he has 4 outs. 3.43 * (4/44) = 0.312 times you lose here. 0.312 * -$178 = -$55.54.
12/56s of those 8 times, or 1.71 times he has 10 outs. 1.71 * (10/44) = 0.389 times you lose here. 0.389 * -$178 = -69.24.
The remaining 7.299 times (out of 8) you win $223. 7.299 * 223 = +$1627.68.
$1627.68 - $55.54 - $69.24 - $1554 = -$51.10.
-$51.10 / 45 calls = -$1.14 per call
Even in a perfect world where he stacks off every time on the turn and has zero outs except with his made two pairs and sets, a call is -EV. Assuming I did the math right.
Statistics: Posted by k3nt — Tue Apr 24, 2007 4:10 pm
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But your implied odds are pretty decent imo, particularly on a 7. I'm not really sure about a J. Let's just assume you have full implied odds all the way.
Then you lose $42 4.5 times and win about $230 once.
If you feel like you'll always get a call, then it's +EV. I have some doubts on the J, though, although the whole thing is pretty close. And he's often going to have some outs to catch up.
I'd say this call is pretty marginal--probably +EV if you have true 100% calling equity, probably -EV if he'll fold occasionally.
Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Tue Apr 24, 2007 7:41 am
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I think maybe someone more experienced could throw in some better analysis than the one I gave above, but it sounds about right to me...
Statistics: Posted by RedBarracuda — Tue Apr 24, 2007 7:32 am
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