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You math wizzes can correct me if Im wrong but, youre going to hit the straight on the turn about 1 time in 6.5.....so you lose $36 5.5 times and hit the straight one time. Of all the times you hit the straight, yore going to get stacked 1 time in 5 and stack him 4 times out of 5.
This doesnt account for all the times that you put in $36 and then have to fold when UTG shoves all in like he did here. Not accounting for those times heres what I come up with.
Lose $36 x 5.5 = $198
The one time you hit the straight on the turn..
You win about $220 80% of the time and lose $150 20% for a total of = +$146
$198-$146 = $52 / 6.5 = $8
Figure in the times you put in $36 and then fold to the reraise all in and I would say its slightly negative EV unless you can stack more than one guy some percentage of the time.
I pass.
Statistics: Posted by iceman5 — Fri Apr 27, 2007 10:51 am
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saw flop|saw showdown
BB ($200)
UTG ($296.45)
UTG+1 ($188.70)
MP1 ($145.75)
MP2 ($200)
MP3 ($200)
CO ($657)
Button ($115.30)
Hero ($338.40)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 7
, 6. UTG raises to $6, 1 fold, MP1 calls $6, MP3 calls $6, 2 folds, Hero calls $5, BB calls $4.
Flop: ($30) 8
, 3
, 5
(6 players)Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $18, MP1 raises to $36, MP3 calls $36, Hero ???
I'm pretty sure UTG is going to push when it comes back to him and MP1 looks like a set. Thus no fold equity by pushing first. Standard fold?
Statistics: Posted by paulee — Wed Apr 25, 2007 11:46 pm
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