i'm not especially worried about the flush draw. I don't particuarlly think he calls a $16 reraise OOP with a hand like [9c] - the only hand you're really worried about.
My initial instinct here is to say push, but given the likely range that he has, he almost certainly will be betting into you on the turn. So what are our options?
A: push. He's already put $124 of his stack in, leaving him with $116. If you come over the top, i'd say there's a 50% chance he calls with QQ, and an 80-90% chance he calls with KK. If he does have a big pair, his play here seems to be telling you "i like my hand, and i'm going to keep playing with it.
or
B: call. Not because you want to reevaluate the turn, but because you don't want to lose QQ here. Once again, he's saying "i like my hand, and i'm going to keep playing with it", but we're not sure if he's willing to play for it all now. If you just call you have a $200 pot on the turn, leaving him with only one play - a flat push. If you can call quickly enough you might even make him think you're on the flush draw, forcing him to only one move.
Of course, it is possible that he's got 99/55/22 here, and is just open raising them in the CO. Still, against a loose reraiser, out of position, and facing a solid reraise like you made, i'm going to have to play off a set on this flop.
In the end, I think i'm usually just flat pushing this flop. But i think the better choice in the long run is to just call and get the money in on the turn.Statistics: Posted by Stelvask — Sun Jul 15, 2007 11:20 am
]]>