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I'm not exactly sure what he would have but I think if he has AK then he's betting most of the time, if he has AJ (low chance I agree but not entirely out of the question) then he will also bet some % of the time. I think he could also try to 'push us off' our hand (thinking we have KK, JJ, etc) with a hand like JT or something - knowing that we most likely either a) have a hand which will fold if he bets but he would have won at showdown had he checked or b) have a better hand which would fold if he bets but he would lose at showdown had he checked. I don't think we (hero) often has a hand that he will bet the flop with then check two streets which can also call a shove AND beat JT. Ie, if we're never showing up with two-pair or better here so our hand is basically defined as either Ax where x =/= a card on the board, something like KK/JJ, or KQ/JQ/etc, or something completely out of the ordinary like 67s. Not a single one of these hands can *really* call a shove (except AK, maybe, but we even then we don't always play it this way) but a tonne of these hands would beat a hand like JT or JQ at showdown. Even if he has JJ it would probably be good for him to shove.
Now a lot of players aren't capable of turning a hand with a semblance of showdown value into a bluff given the information they receive during a hand is played, but a lot can, and the way players are improving I would say that more and more players are capable of it. Given that the OP is a "decent TAG" this could easily mean he is a really great player except the OP hasn't seen anything spectacular from him - only that he hasn't made any glaring mistakes.
So take that, coupled with the fact that he is unlikely to call the flop AND check the turn with 2pair+ and I think a strong case could be made for calling. Also the fact that a while back everyone and their mother thought "zomg he overbet the river, he has the nuts!" now quite a few people are overbetting as bluffs.
Now of course if we knew that he knew this and had a wide shoving range on the river, then we should be calling not only with AK but also with AK, KK, KQ, etc. Now though if HE knows this, he should be valuebetting his AJ hands. Now if we know that, we should be folding more. But if he knows that, he should be bluffing more. But if we know that, we should be calling more. Etc etc.
Basically I think the opponent is on the level of thinking that would make calling this river bet +EV with AK given the exact circumstances of this particular hand.
Statistics: Posted by GodlikeRoy — Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:54 am
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I think TAG had AQ or TT here and was semi-slowplaying the turn, hoping that Hero would either bet or call the river.
Statistics: Posted by Stoneburg — Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:21 am
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I am head of JJ only, split with the unlikely AK, how do you justify a call roy? A strong made hand would bet less looking for a call?
Statistics: Posted by Semillon — Tue Jul 17, 2007 6:46 pm
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Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: $228
CO: $279.25
Button: $200
Hero: $506.70
BB: $200
Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with
![[Kh]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Kh.gif "The King of Hearts")
![[Ad]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ad.gif "The Ace of Diamonds")
2 folds, Button raises to $7, Hero raises to $24, BB folds, Button calls.
Flop:
![[Ac]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Ac.gif "The Ace of Clubs")
![[Td]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Td.gif "The Ten of Diamonds")
![[Qh]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Qh.gif "The Queen of Hearts")
($50, 2 players)Hero bets $35, Button calls.
Turn:
![[7s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/7s.gif "The Seven of Spades")
($120, 2 players)Hero checks, Button checks.
River:
![[8s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/8s.gif "The Eight of Spades")
($120, 2 players)Hero checks, Button is all-in $141, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $141 returned to Button.
Results:
Final pot: $120
Statistics: Posted by Semillon — Tue Jul 17, 2007 6:10 pm
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