I think sets have to grit their teeth and call anyway if you're not crazily deep.
Here are some pros and cons the way I see it (I'd appreciate any help in trying to put together a complete list here):
1) You completely exclude draws. If they know your range, 87 just can't call a huge push on a K65 board because they're drawing to a split half the time and a probable loss the other half. So, this isn't a downside and increases the value of your own SC. True, you get a bit less out of your KK as a result, but 87 is a very dangerous hand for KK, and 87 can't make the straight at the same time the board pairs. So, I'm counting this as a pro. The value you lose on KK you gain back with interest on your own straight draws.
2) On flush-draw boards, the exclusion of draws has greater downsides. A flush CAN hit at the same time as a board pairing. But only a fool will lose a deep-stack here--although you will pick up a fairly nice pot with boat vs. flush. There is the advantage that you knock out a lot of favorite hands when you have your flush draw.
3) You gain value from short-stacks (counting those here as up to 100 BB), who'll DEFINITELY call with sets, presumably with AA, also with 2 pair.
4) You gain a LOT of value from AK on the K65 board, where AK is actually a much better hand than AA because of its relationship to your push range. Villain holding that hand is in great shape against your range, but I think he'll essentially always fold it vs. a pushing tight player. This also applies to flush draw boards.
5) OOP, my response to ice convinced me that you do end up losing some battles that you would otherwise win due to position (largely draw vs. draw if villain is tricky), and the push completely eliminates that possibility.
6) The main con is that you may get smaller sets to lay down. If they do that, then the play probably won't work. I just have my doubts whether people will actually lay down lower sets in this situation, with the knowledge that there's a 50-50 chance you're on a draw.
Even with just a full stack, this kind of power play seems to me to lose value mainly only on flush-draw type boards, where your set CAN stack the flush--although it can also lose you a stack when the flush hits, as I've definitely experienced several times to my great dismay.
But even there, your flush draws gain a lot of value if TP type hands always just lay down to the push--and I don't think those will even have to think all that hard before going away. Also, if the board has flush and straight draw, then your 87s on a twotone K65 board gains a lot of value vs. AXs, which can't call for that much.
My provisional conclusion: As long as sets are still calling, this play should work really well in deep stack. The shorter you are, however, the less dramatically you see these gains. As a result, it's not clear whether the smallish losses coming from your consistent raising on some "non-raising" hands aren't greater than what you pick up in EV gain from the power play. you'll also CB these at least sometimes and lose even more--when and when not to CB is another loose end that would need to be analysed. However, that, too, might have its advantages. You're still not raising maniacally, and if you kind of raise pre, check flop a lot more often than I have hitherto, then your bets on "hits" of whatever kind gain greater credibility.Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Sat Oct 27, 2007 11:40 pm
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