The reason I did call, with a lot of hestitation (and tis is obv done in hindsight and not at the table):
There aren't that many hands in his range that beat me 77 (1 hand) JJ (3), 99 (3), AJ (9). And I don't think AJ is that likely, but on the other hand there might be a chance he has AA or KK, but I doubt that after his flop and turn play. So all in all 16 hands.
He must realize that I have QQ, KK or Ax, so everything that doesn't beat that is a bluff, and actually have limited show down calue
Hands he could then bluff with. 88 (6), TT (6), JT (12) QJ (3), i.e. 27 hands.
He might think that his QJ has showdown value, and put JT etc in my range, but I doubt it.
The analysis above, obv overstates my chances in the hand, but just trying to make a point. Anyways I think his hand range that is a weak made hand that he could bluff with is fairly large, and at least as large as his range that beats me. Of course he does't bluff all his hand that has limited show down value.
And this combined with the odds. I have to be right 32% of the time for it to be break even.
It might very well be a fold, and I am not saying that I made a great play by calling. I wanted your input and that was why I posted it.
ThxStatistics: Posted by Electrolux — Mon Oct 29, 2007 2:11 am
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