Also, something like 87 with 8h now has a lot of factual outs but will have difficulty calling this turn (unless he's super-chasy). You indicate that the hearts don't bother you, and he's drawing to a very weak heart.
What I hate on checking behind is that then a 7 or 2 hits the river and you're beat when most players would've folded.
Anyhow, I think you're ahead significantly more than half the time and have some decent fold equity even against a lot of hands that likely have more outs than they may realize.
Also bluffing any river I think would be very bad indeed. I'd probably make a vb if a T hit, but even that I'm not super-excited about.
One suggestion: I'd make the raise with position smaller. I really like 2.5 BB or $5 here. I used to think that I should beef it up if they called too much, but then I realized the following: Why should I change anything at all if they're calling too much when I have a better hand AND position? That's actually a great thing for me, so let 'em keep doing it!
In this case, it would lead to the pot not being quite so inflated, so you're not so much playing for his whole stack as just a sizeable chunk of it (you can CB maybe 7 in the flop pot of $10 and then bet the turn also at 18 or so rather than 24). The one downside in a cash-game structure might be the rake. I think playing that style, you may want the match to end more quickly rather than getting involved with lots of smallish raked pots--so that may speak for going with 6-7 after all.Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Fri Nov 02, 2007 10:42 pm
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