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The pfr has the SPR (Stack to Pot Ratio) = 2.33
His range that will stack off is: KK-77, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, QdJd, T9, J9, 96
His calling range is KK-22, AK, AQ, KQ, QJ, T9, J9, 96 (I know some are very unlikely, but I put them in just for simplicity to help with calculating how I fare when I get it in).
His calling range = 13.6% of hands.
His stacking-off range = 4.2% of hands.
So, 69% of the time, he'll call and fold to a flop bet (assuming ZERO bluffing).
and 31% of the time, he'll call and get it in somehow (on flop or turn).
The 69% of the time he calls and folds to my CB, I win $36.
0.69*36 = $24.84
The 31% of the time he calls and stacks off, I win 120 (pot plus the 84 left) 36.2%, lose 84 (what remains in my stack) 63.8%.
0.31*0.362*120 = $13.47
0.31*0.638*84 = -$16.61
The sum of 24.84+13.47-16.61 = $21.70
So, betting and stacking off no matter what nets me $21.70 every time.
Did I do that right? The percentages are correct, as are the products/sums, but am I correct to say that when we're all in and I win, I win 120 (his 84 plus the 36 pot)? And when I lose, I only lose what I have left? Or, do I have to say that each time I win 100 and lose 100??
THANKS!
Statistics: Posted by black_knight6 — Thu Nov 08, 2007 8:17 pm
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xaston is the guy with the gun obv...monsters under the bed are scared of him..
Statistics: Posted by excession — Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:26 pm
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Statistics: Posted by excession — Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:20 pm
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His range can be a lot wider than what what you're giving him credit for. At least bet the flop so he can't bet 55 and take it down.
Statistics: Posted by paulee — Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:07 pm
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His range probably includes KK-22 and suited connectors.
Statistics: Posted by k3nt — Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:48 pm
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