The board is dry as a bone. No draws for flushes or straights. That means you can't flat call and rep a draw that hits the turn.
There is also the ace on the flop which means he is more likely to have hit.
Before I float him here I want to see either a note on that a 'weak CB = weak' or his CB stats (does he auto-CB?) and his WtSD% (is he weak-tight enough that I can get him off a weak ace?).
If I float I have 5 genuine outs but otherwise I am repping an ace.
So I think a min-raise (or slightly more) (repping a strong ace or better) is better against a vanilla player here - he has to lay down any non-ace hand unless he is a donk. If he snap calls and checks to you it looks like a weak ace and I think it's a full pot bet with a very good chance of taking it down on the turn. If he bets out again I think you can let go unless you hit your outs. And his CB on the flop is only half pot - it does look like either he has AK and is milking or is scared of the ace.
As played the turn is an auto bet. What are you trying to rep by flat calling the flop and then checking? You rep a decent ace+ by betting 3/4 pot+ on the turn.
I don't like the river call and would expect to see a biggish pocket pair or ace.Statistics: Posted by excession — Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:27 pm
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