Yeah, that can be true vs. 4%ers. A lot depends on the overall situation, though.
I'll usually flat call if everyone has folded between me and the raiser. If there are more in, I'll re-raise.
In live games particularly, though, I see a lot of these guys raise maybe QQ, call the re-raise and still stack off with their overpair--and it's much easier for them to stack off in a re-raised pot.
Just as an experiment, let's say (assuming a good tight player) in a 1/2 game, some hand raises to 8 (200 in stack depth), you immediately re-raise to maybe 24. They obviously call with JJ/QQ and will probably push KK. They now fold AK.
So, your EV vs. KK is something like 120 (.8*200 - .2*200).
Vs. AK your EV is just 11 let's say (8 + BB + SB), although someone else may also wake up with a big hand.
Vs. JJ-QQ you win 27 85% of the time. On the other 15% (they set), you lose maybe 100 (?), depending on how they play it. So, that's an EV of something like 22-15 = 7.
Total EV is then (120*6 + 7*12 + 11*8)/26 = (720 + 84 +88)/26 = 892/26 = 34 or so. What's really creating the winnings is the big win vs. KK. On everything else, you obviously make much less than with flat call.
With the flat call, a vaguely complete calculation would be rather tedious. You allow others in (who may beat you but who also put in extra money) and you pick up the CB from the raiser, unless he beats you. I think this is reasonable unless you figure on lots of callers. But I do think it's going to be hard to average 34 here.
I just note that the advantage of re-raising AA here stems from the fact that a raiser this tight has KK very often and is probably going to push PF.
You know, honestly, under the assumptions you're making about re-raising, I think the thing to do is be more inclined to re-raise AK. If they're really playing JJ for set value at that point, I think that's more the way to go rather than failing to re-raise AA. And I still don't think re-raising KK is all that great. I much prefer an AK re-raise to a KK re-raise here really--since it reduces the AA/KK frequency for them and also gives you a hand that's fairly easy to get away from.
Also, I think they'll still lose a good part of stack with JJ or QQ as overpair even after a re-raise unless they really think of you as a rock who MUST have AA (in which case you should be re-raising AK).Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:49 pm
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