First, the check-call is only a good play imo on JJ (since that eliminates so many of the stronger hands), but that's not his range. In actuality, it means that he thinks I'm betting this board too often.
But, if I'm only VBing 99+, then it looks like this: Say I bet 7 into a pot of 10. He's calling 7 to win 17, so he needs to be ahead on the turn a bit less than 1/3 of the time. The draws are clearly bad calls given the range.
He actually should be calling with somewhat more than top 60 out of that range. Top 66 is AT or better.
And now one should only be betting the turn with trips or a hand that beats trips.
So, the point is: Most opponents are likely to overplay their hands on this board.
In general, roughly optimal play (on any board) from a game-theory standpoint should be roughly to bet top 1/3 (this may be higher, I'd have to figure that out, and depends also on bet sizes) and bluff 1/6. However, if for reasons of reads or board-texture we get sub-optimal calls or bets, then this can change to betting ONLY top 1/3 or to bluffing everything (in addition to betting top 1/3).Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Wed Mar 12, 2008 2:47 pm
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