First, a value-bet is always being ahead of 2/3 of villain's range in a given situation--i.e., you have top 1/3 given villain's range.
So, the question is: How often should you bluff? And there's also a game-theoretical optimum, which I think is around 1/6 of the time with pot-sized bets.
However, in a given situation you also have or should have some assessment of fold equity.
I'll give PF play as an example, but the same actually applies on all streets--except that a betting sequence also narrows down your opponent's hand range. PF with position, his hand is random.
Now, if you're in SB and the blinds are 10/20, a VB is raising top 1/3 of your hands according to HU ranking. And if you raise to 50 (as I do here), you're paying 40 for a chance to win 30.
So, villain needs to fold a bit more than half the time (for simplicity's sake, I think we can call it 2/3) to make a bluff break-even.
Hence, as long as villain is calling >1/3 of the time, you should never bluff. And if he's calling <1/3, you should ALWAYS raise.
My conclusion is that you should be switching between these strategies until you feel like villain has changed his. And the same applies on every street.
Probably most difficult to play against PF should be raising actually a bit tight for a stretch (more like top 20% or randomized so as to define your hand less), then, as soon as you've achieved the goal of getting <30% calls, raise everything.
Similarly postflop: If he'll fold more than 50% to a pot-sized flop bet, you should be betting every flop. If not, you should be VBing only. Or with raises: If he'll fold often (defined according to your cost vs. gain) to a raise, you should be raising everything. If not, only value raises.Statistics: Posted by Aisthesis — Wed Mar 12, 2008 3:52 pm
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