The way I see it, the SB could have the following hands - A9, A4, AK, AQ, 99, or 44. Against A9, its 45/55 and against A4, I am a 54/46 favorite! I was a huge favorite against AQ, and would obviously have a freeroll against AK. Even, if my opponent had a set, I still was about 30% to win.
I thought about flat calling, but if I took this line, I think that I would have to lay the hand down to a pot sized bet on the turn, if I missed a K or a heart. That just seemed way too weak for me - my opponent could just put me on the flush draw and bet me off my hand with AQ.
I was also not comfortable flat calling and making the decision that I have my opponent trapped and that I'm going all the way with the hand. I would be faced with some very tough calls on the turn and river. What's the saying - "NL is not about making heroic calls, but rather about making your opponent make tough calls." I rather make the raise and gamble, if need be, rather than flat call and hope.
Thus, I decided I should raise - and agreeing with Ice, I decided to push all-in. A pot sized raise would commit about 80% of my chips, so its all-in or nothing. I fully agree with Stelvask, as well, and an all-in here may well get A4 or even A9 to fold his hand, fearing a set. While I may lose action from AQ with this play, I think the equity I gain in my opponents folding better hands makes up for this.
Nonetheless, my opponent had A9d, and called. The turn was a King, and the river was a heart, just for overkill. I scooped the $5000 pot.
I can see an argument for flat calling, if you are willing to fold to a turn pot-sized bet. Personally, however, I wasn't willing to do so, considering the table texture. There were just too many moves being put on the raisers for me to give my opponent credit for a set just yet.
DStatistics: Posted by droqqa — Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:39 pm
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