As always, this post comes with a dose of salt required, as my experience is in micro-limits only.
HOWEVER, that said, a minimum raise of a pot-sized bet on the flop CAN get you to the river cheaply. Many times the original pot better is leading out with a hand that feels strong but vulnerable to him - usually top pair or TPTK. If you pop him back with a minraise on the flop, he will usually stop and think a second, worried about two pair or a set -- and then he will usually call the minraise, and then check to you on the turn.
Obviously, if he re-raises the flop, you're bumming. But if not, your minraise on the flop is much cheaper than having to call his new pot-sized bet on the turn. So that's one advantage.
The second advantage is that he probably puts you on two pair or a set on the flop, and then thinks you're trying to sucker him with a slowplay when you don't bet again on the turn. (The faster the game is moving, the less time he will have to adjust his thinking.) So even when your flush does hit, you're likely to get paid off. You may even get him betting before you on the river to represent that he hit the flush -- since he "knows" you're on a set or two pairs! And when your flush doesn't hit, you have a reasonable chance of inducing a fold on the river.
So the play can work, at least sometimes, at least at some levels. It will never be a standard play the way it is in limit poker, but maybe the fact that it's not standard can make it work for you if you mix it in.
Statistics: Posted by k3nt — Mon Jan 03, 2005 4:48 pm
]]>
]]>
The original post is about betting in late position on the flop to get a free turn card. This play is standard in limit, with the idea (as I understand it) being to get to the river as cheaply as possible when you're on a draw.
The original question was, is there any analogy to this play in no-limit?
My guess (just a guess) is that there isn't. Here's why.
In limit, turn bets are always twice as big as flop bets. So if you're on a draw with a better in front of you, if you can raise the flop and then he checks the turn so you can check behind, that's actually 1 small bet cheaper to get to the river, compared to calling the flop and then having to call a bet on the turn.
In no-limit, if you raise a flop bet, you have just increased the pot size significantly. If there is a turn bet, it will have to be significantly larger than it would have been otherwise. So instead of shrinking the size of the pot by the river, your flop bet actually has a very good chance of increasing it significantly.
Put otherwise: your raise on the flop will probably have to be about pot sized to impress anybody. So even if you do get a free turn card, you've increased the pot by the size of a pot-sized bet. But if you just call the flop, the same guy will likely lead out with a pot-sized bet on the turn. If you call this bet, you are in exactly the same spot in terms of total $$ in the pot.
So best case scenario, your flop raise doesn't gain you anything. Worst case scenario, it does the opposite of what you're trying to do.
I hope that made sense.
Statistics: Posted by k3nt — Mon Dec 20, 2004 10:54 am
]]>
One thing I had not thought about is that although I am drawing to only 9 outs (max) in this case if all four people stay in, my outs probably go way up if only 1 of them calls. So that helps a lot.
A second thing that is probably worth thinking about is that I am still playing micro-limits, where people really don't care so much when they lose their stack. I mean, I'm annoyed when I lose my two bucks, because I am really trying to play well and win at this level, but it's not the end of the world. I am more likely to call an all-in because a lot of people go all-in as a bluff/semibluff, just because 2 bucks doesn't bother them that much if they lose it. In fact, I have seen a lot of people making this exact play, going all in with a flush draw, and they ALWAYS get called and they win less than half the time.
Also, there is no such thing as a table image in online micro-limit poker. Nobody is paying attention -- at least, so far as I have seen.
With the hypothetical ATs hand we're talking about, I would actually rather be first to act. I would call the bet on the flop and then throw out a smallish blocking bet attempt on the turn if my flush card doesn't hit. Other people who are on a draw will probably call the blocking bet, and with luck the guy who thinks he's ahead gets worried by my small bet as well and just calls. (Whatever overpair he is playing, maybe I have a bigger one or just hit a set. He doesn't know what's going on, so he takes the easy way out & just calls.) In a perfect world, I then have a bigger pot with lots of contributors if the flush does hit on the river, and I can still get away cheaply if it doesn't.
But then this kind of play probably only works with that idiots I prefer to play with.
Statistics: Posted by k3nt — Mon Dec 20, 2004 10:42 am
]]>
]]>
]]>
]]>
]]>
]]>
]]>
]]>
]]>
]]>
]]>
]]>