This is irrelevant. It's before any information comes into the system.
If instead I ask you 'what is the average holding that non-maniacs will re-raise a standard raise with pre-flop', you will get the following
Most ABC players will stick to re-raising with a big pair (ie AA,KK or maybe QQ).
Some aggressive types will also push with AK, JJ or even TT.
Now if I look at the PFR% of someone and see that he is passive (ie less than 8% raise pre-flop) then I'm pretty sure he won't be that aggressive a re-raiser. Let's make the assumption (and it's a worst case scenario) that every aggressive pre-flop player would also re-raise with AK,JJ or TT)
I know that a least 2/3 of players at the Party $25 low-medium average tables (where I play) will come into the passive category (in fact I will be able to see the stats on the specific player but let's try to guess the 'average' likliehood we are in trouble.)
So 66% of the time (the ABC players) you are facing an overpair to your QQ if there is a re-raise pre-flop .
The other 33% you might be.
12 ways for the AA or KK
16 ways for AK, 12 for JJ or TT (28)
Roughly 1/3 the time you are facing the overpair vs the aggressive re-raiser..
So I figure you are facing the overpair overall 3 times out of 4.
And of course the aggressive player is going to push no matter what post-flop.
Nah - as I said before - unless he is a maniac I'm shutting up shop if I don't set the flop.Statistics: Posted by excession — Fri Jan 07, 2005 7:44 am
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