If you make top set on a board with 2 suited cards, you are more than a 70% favourite to win at the river. Your opponent only has a 30% or less chance of winning- don't forget that even when he makes his flush, if the board pairs, you still win with your boat. So I think your odds are a little off- he is much worse than a 50/50. Obviosuly these odds change when you get to middle or bottom set, or two pair, but I am sure you see my point.
The important thing in this spot is to make sure your opponents are not getting the right odds to call. Betting the pot, therefore, or overbetting it, as you advocate, will certainly do this. In fact, you must bet the pot to protect your set. Of course this will not stop the fish calling you, but they will be mathematically wrong to do so, so, in the long term, this will make you money.
This is all dependent on stack size, how many left etc, as everything else is especailly in an SnG. But I firmly believe that not betting out with a made set on the flop, even if it is bottom set, is a big mistake, and one that will lead to you playing scared. After all, if you ain't going to push it here, when are you going to?Statistics: Posted by Telemachus — Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:34 am
]]>